I thought the trailer was so boring that the movie probably wasn't worth seeing. The problem with this method is that I don't generally see enough movies with unpromising trailers to see whether my theory has predictive power.
I agree with your theory. Here's my reasoning. The people marketing the movie have every reason to pack as many exciting bits from the movie as possible into the trailer. (This is why sometimes the trailer is much better than the movie--there are times when the movie only has enough exciting bits to make a three-minute trailer.) So if the *trailer* is boring, that either means that the movie makers could only afford clueless marketers, or (more likely) that the movie doesn't have enough exciting bits to make a decent trailer. Either way, staying home is a win.
Actually, I think it's usually a fair guess when (as with FF), a sample of the movie is offered. If that's really boring, then there isn't much hope for the movie.
On the other hand, the trailer I saw for "The Incredibles" was a dreary bit of Mr. Incredible struggling into his superhero suit. The movie was much better than that.
You can't buy brains. Money might improve your odds, but it's no guarantee. I bet it's entirely possible to spend the usual amount or more, and still get a marketer who has a fit of cluelessness at the worst possible moment for making your trailer.
I stand corrected. It's certainly true that money doesn't always get you the best talent, and equally true that even the best and brightest screw up (consider the New Coke debacle, for instance).
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On the other hand, the trailer I saw for "The Incredibles" was a dreary bit of Mr. Incredible struggling into his superhero suit. The movie was much better than that.
You can't buy brains. Money might improve your odds, but it's no guarantee. I bet it's entirely possible to spend the usual amount or more, and still get a marketer who has a fit of cluelessness at the worst possible moment for making your trailer.
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